The European Modelling Hubs provide forecasts and scenario modelling outputs to governments, healthcare agencies, and the public. The ensemble model approach, where results from multiple contributed models are pooled together, is used to account for the uncertainty arising from the different ways a given phenomenon can be modelled. The hubs follow an open science approach where modellers openly share their code and assumptions to increase the likelihood of modelling outputs being adopted, as well as facilitating progress in modelling techniques. This initiative is led by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
RespiCast is our forecasting hub for viral respiratory diseases. Forecasts are short-term predictions of the future course of an infectious disease based on current and historical data. They help identify trends, evaluate the potential impact of interventions, and guide rapid resource allocation to mitigate the burden of the disease in real time. In RespiCast, forecasts from individual models are combined into robust model ensembles. Predictions from individual models and the ensembles are routinely compared against observed data to assess their accuracy and to inform improvements in the models.
RespiCompass is ECDC’s hub dedicated to scenario modelling of viral respiratory diseases. Scenario modelling explores mid- to long-term projections that incorporate specific scenario assumptions to manage uncertainty. The scenarios are designed to support policymakers by providing insights into the potential impact of public health interventions and different epidemiological contexts. RespiCompass brings together multiple modelling groups working collaboratively with experts in respiratory virus surveillance, as well as other ECDC stakeholders, including public health agencies at both national and supranational levels.
Get in touch
For updates on the European Modelling Hubs, including upcoming meetings and new research, all are welcome to join the European Modelling Hubs mailing list. Please contact us at european.modelling.hub@ecdc.europa.eu with a request to join the European Modelling Hubs forum, and to join our online community discussions.